2035 Emissions Reduction Targets Explained

Key takeaways

• Countries set 2035 emissions reduction targets to cut greenhouse gases by a set percent from a baseline year. These are called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement.
• Global pledges today would cut about 12% of emissions by 2035 compared to 2019. This is progress, but not yet enough (UNEP via Carbon Brief; UNFCCC summary via Earth.Org).
• To keep warming closer to 2°C, global emissions need to drop around 35% by 2035 (UNEP).
• The United States has a 2035 NDC of 61–66% below 2005 levels, with at least a 35% cut in methane by 2035 (UN updates in media; White House fact sheet; UNFCCC NDC; U.S. State Department).
• Australia’s expert body advises a 62–70% cut from 2005 levels by 2035 (Climate Change Authority).
• Under current policies, G20 emissions could fall to about 33 GtCO2 in 2035, with a “peak and decline” path, but timing is uncertain (UNEP via Carbon Brief).

What is a 2035 emissions reduction target?

A 2035 target is a goal to cut a country’s greenhouse gas emissions by a certain percent by the year 2035. Most targets sit inside a country’s NDC under the UNFCCC.

The “baseline year” is the year used for comparison, like 2005 or 2019. A 60% cut from 2005 means the country aims to emit 60% less in 2035 than it did in 2005.

You may see two kinds of targets: unconditional (a country will do it on its own) and conditional (it will do more if it gets finance or help). Many NDCs include both.

How far are we, globally?

Updated country pledges point to about a 12% drop in global emissions by 2035 compared to 2019. That is better than before, when the expected drop was closer to 10% (UNFCCC summary via Earth.Org; UNEP via Carbon Brief).

Without the Paris Agreement, emissions might have gone up by 20–48% by 2035 (UNFCCC summary via Earth.Org). Some analyses suggest that if countries fully deliver new commitments, global CO2 could fall by up to 25% by 2035 (Carbon Pulse).

But to hold warming near 2°C, the world needs about a 35% cut by 2035 (UNEP). Under current policies, G20 emissions could be about 33 GtCO2 in 2035, down from 35 GtCO2 in 2030. China drives the biggest drop, followed by the EU and the U.S., but there is still uncertainty on when global emissions will peak (UNEP via Carbon Brief).

United States: What is the 2035 target?

The U.S. 2035 NDC is a 61–66% cut below 2005 levels by 2035. It also aims to cut methane by at least 35% from 2005 levels by 2035 (White House fact sheet; UNFCCC NDC; U.S. State Department). The plan keeps the U.S. on a straight path to net zero by 2050.

Is the U.S. on track?

Under current policies, U.S. emissions could fall up to 57% by 2035 compared to 2005 (UNFCCC NDC).

Analyses show a 65% cut is possible by 2035 with stronger action on clean power and methane, and even deeper cuts with extra steps (University of Maryland CGS; NRDC).

Key levers

• Power: move to 100% carbon-free electricity by 2035 to drive the biggest cuts (U.S. State Department).
• Methane: lower oil and gas leaks and landfill methane; fast impact on warming (White House fact sheet).
• Transport: boost EV sales and chargers; the U.S. targets 50% EV sales by 2030 (U.S. State Department).
• Industry & buildings: electrify heat, use clean fuels, and improve efficiency (UNFCCC NDC).

Australia: What is the advised 2035 target?

Australia’s Climate Change Authority advises a 62–70% cut from 2005 levels by 2035. It says this is the highest possible ambition that is still practical and in Australia’s interest, based on science, modeling, and sector analysis (Climate Change Authority).

What would drive cuts?

• Faster clean power build-out and grid upgrades.
• More EVs and charging networks.
• Lower methane from energy and waste.
• Nature-based carbon sinks where credible.

EU and China: what to know

Both the EU and China help drive projected global cuts by 2035. UNEP notes China is the largest contributor to reductions in new projections, followed by the EU, then the U.S. (UNEP via Carbon Brief).

Many major economies, including the EU and China, have submitted 2035 NDCs in the latest cycle (Climate Action Tracker).

2035 targets scorecard (snapshot)

Economy or group	Baseline	2035 target or pathway	Conditional?	Status and notes
Global (current NDCs)	2019	About -12% vs 2019	Mixed	Aggregate of updated pledges; progress but short of limits (UNFCCC summary via Earth.Org).
Global (2°C pathway)	2019	~ -35% vs 2019	n/a	Needed drop to hold near 2°C warming (UNEP).
United States	2005	-61% to -66% vs 2005	Unconditional	Includes ≥35% methane cut; multiple sector paths (UNFCCC NDC; U.S. State Department).
Australia	2005	-62% to -70% vs 2005	Advised	Authority says feasible and in national interest (Climate Change Authority).
G20 emissions (projection)	n/a	33 GtCO2 in 2035	n/a	Projection under current policies (UNEP via Carbon Brief).

What these targets mean for key sectors

Power

Clean power is the backbone. For the U.S., a 100% carbon-free grid by 2035 is the core driver (U.S. State Department). Business tip: long-term power purchase agreements can lock in low costs. Citizen action: choose a green power plan where available.

Transport

More EVs, better transit, and cleaner fuels. The U.S. aims for 50% EV sales by 2030 (U.S. State Department). Business tip: start with fleet segments that save money first (city delivery). Citizen action: test-drive an EV; many rebates lower upfront cost.

Industry

Efficiency, electrification, and low-carbon fuels. Methane controls in oil and gas are some of the fastest, cheapest cuts (White House fact sheet).

Buildings

Heat pumps, better insulation, and smart controls cut bills and emissions. Citizen action: seal drafts and set a timer on heating to save money now.

Waste and methane

Landfill gas capture and composting reduce methane. Cities can save on waste fees and create local jobs.

Land use

Forests and soils can store carbon when policies protect nature and improve farm practices.

Are we on a "peak and decline" path?

UNEP sees a likely peak and then decline in global emissions, but there is still uncertainty on timing and how fast cuts will happen (UNEP via Carbon Brief). Faster action this decade makes the 2035 goals easier and cheaper.

Trends to watch in 2025–2030

• More 2035 NDCs submitted and strengthened; many major economies have already filed new targets (Climate Action Tracker).
• Rapid clean power build-out and grid upgrades.
• Scaling methane cuts in energy and waste.
• Cheaper batteries and heat pumps speeding up adoption.

How to use this guide

• Policy teams: compare national baselines and targets when drafting plans or comments.
• Businesses: map your 2035 plan to national targets to manage risk and win incentives.
• Investors: track countries closing the gap to a ~35% global drop by 2035 for 2°C.

FAQs

What do "baseline years" mean?

The baseline is the year you compare to. For example, the U.S. uses 2005 for its 2035 target (UNFCCC NDC).

What is the difference between conditional and unconditional targets?

Unconditional targets will be done with a country’s own resources. Conditional targets need extra finance or technology help.

Do targets include methane?

Often yes. The U.S. expects at least a 35% methane cut by 2035 as part of its NDC (White House fact sheet).

Is the world on track for 2°C?

Not yet. Current pledges point to about a 12% drop by 2035 vs 2019. The world needs about 35% by 2035 for a 2°C path, so countries must strengthen and deliver plans fast (UNEP; UNFCCC summary via Earth.Org).

Call to action

Make your plan now. If you are a business, set a 2035 roadmap that aligns with national policy signals. If you are a citizen, add your voice when public comments open and choose clean options when you can. Every year counts.